All lost in Nairobi - India’s battle at WTO

“India is pushed back several steps, losing all gains built assiduously over the years, and in one stroke NDA has achieved what even previous governments could not by succumbing to the pressure of developed countries”.  This seemingly innocuous reaction from Kenya drew proportions back home when “India reflected its disappointment” in not able to seek the “reaffirmations” on the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) in the Nairobi Ministerial Declarations (NMD) at the recently concluded Tenth Ministerial Conference of the WTO, held in Nairobi, Kenya.

 The reaffirmations were to seek parity in trade anomalies specially addressing the challenges on protecting Agriculture Subsidies under the Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM) and initiatives towards Public Stockholding Programs much needed to align India’s Food Security expectations. This has been in discussions since past few years and remained contentious between developed and developing (read emerging) economies. The latter bearing the effect on millions of poor ensuring their food security and the continuation of “Non-distorted trade subsidies” of the former being dismissive of fair demands including of India since past 14 years. India now lands severely compromising millions of livelihoods dependent on Agriculture, exposing them bare open to the incoming onslaught of the “developed countries” with this failure to ably intervene in Nairobi.

 The NMD discussed over an extended period of time initially saw groupings of African countries, India, China, Venezuela and South Africa to issue joint statements “reaffirming” their positions on Doha Development Declarations and Decisions, backing with the firm intent and commitment” to give effect to them. However despite strong interventions being proposed by India, the “failure” to actually intervene even at the cost of “rejecting the draft” as done by then Minister of Commerce, Kamal Nath in 2004, where India minced no words in calling the proposed draft, “ Pro US and detrimental to the interest of farmers in developing countries”. However in the end the blocks of US and EU were successful in achieving what they never could from previous WTO Trade negotiations by burying Doha Development Agenda (DDA) forever in recent Ministerial Conference at Nairobi.

 There indeed was a concerted attempt by developed countries blaming India for the deadlock in negotiations as a built up to the Nairobi declaration. The intensive negotiations between the Member countries notwithstanding, NDA’s Commerce Minister denied the deadlock placing farmer’s interest first but the “pressure’ in retrospect of events seemingly worked on India.

 The Nairobi Ministerial Declaration in its present form only makes for a passing reference under Para’s 31 to 34 in “recognizing” and setting new “approaches to achieve meaningful outcomes, through multilateral negotiations”.  It further just ensures, “ a strong commitment” to advance negotiations, on the three pillars of agriculture, namely domestic support, market access and export competition, as well as non agriculture market access, services development, TRIPs and the rules”. It though surreally acknowledges that there was no attempt to bring in the “consensus” a severe departure from the Doha rounds as key principle of trade negotiations.

The implications of now having buried the Doha Agenda Framework of 2001 and its non inclusion in the Nairobi Declaration of 2015, the developing countries including India collectively have lost their voice in negotiating any opportunity on WTO trade platforms for securing approvals to its subsidy based programs and stock holding of food grains under welfare interventions. Even despite not breaching the 10% limits on food stockholding programs and domestic agriculture support through subjugation of the principles, a one key element which has carried over our interests and hopes in negotiating a fair trade term on these aspects since past several decades.

The small land holdings of our farmers, subsistence of poor dependent upon these subsidies would now be stringently measured. India could even loose the right to subjectively intervene in Free Trade Agreements (FTA’s) which shall be thrusted creating an asymmetry of trade negotiating boundaries with the sole focus on Trade Facilitation Agreements (TFA’s) opening up the emerging “developing” markets and in turn exposing even our “small marginal farmers with limited landholdings” to the gyrations of global trade governance dynamics.

 The introduction of “New issues” or “Singapore issues carried over from Cancun Ministerial Conference 2003 related to Investment, Competition, Government Procurement and Market Access through interlinked E-Commerce at 10th Ministerial at Nairobi further limits the participation by countries like India in raising & resolving trade blocks and Doha issues in future. The acceptance of these “new issues” sooner would compel us to move into an un-sheltered territory where over arching imposing demands like pressing for the principle of “national treatment” by developed countries in name of trade balance would prevail at the cost of domestic protection polices, cheaper imports, market interventions for subsidized agriculture commodities by global players at expense of needed encouragement of competent local policies fostering trade competitiveness, retaining our food sustainability and commercial safeguards, which is a pivot focal of emerging economy like India

 India now having “caved in” is isolated with no permanent solution on public stock holding issue and is left only with a “work program” to remain perpetually in “draft stages” under “bilateral negotiations” on the (SSM) Special Safeguard Mechanisms.

The Modi government now bears the weight of having missed on an opportunity pushing India back to from where it started and with an equally missing forlorn equitable explanation on what made it succumb to the pressure to the groupings of US, EU and Developed country trade blocks. This severely compromises protection measures & interests of our farmers, fails to ensure adequate food security for our poor and most importantly has landed squarely on its face sacrificing our trade sovereignty at Nairobi.

Abhishek Joshi

(The writer is New Delhi-based Rural Researcher and Policy analyst)